Examining Batted Passes in the NFL

Lucca Ferraz, Maggie Byers, Yixin (Amelia) Yuan

Intro

  • Exploring the factors that go into causing batted passes
    • Batted pass: defender hits the ball down shortly after QB releases it
    • Typically results in incomplete pass, no yards gained
  • Initial characters
    • QB height
    • Offensive formation
    • Defense formation
    • Pass type
    • Overall related more to defense or offense

Data

  • Data from nflreadr
    • Play by play data 2016 through 2023
    • Player info - QB height
    • Did not have information on which passes were batted
  • For The Numbers (FTN)
    • Included tipped and batted passes from 2019 - 2023 seasons
    • Detailed formation information from 2022 and 2023 seasons

Methods

  • Focused on explaining variance, not predicting batted passes
  • Multilevel Logistic Model
    • Random effects - quarterback, defensive team
    • Fixed effects - QB height, pass location, number of players in backfield, pass rushers

Exploratory Data Analysis

Initial data analysis showed no influence from QB height

Model Coefficient Plot

Most consistent model variables: - Number of Pass Rushers - Middle Passes

QB Height has an impact in the 2023 model but not 2022

Results 2

[1] 2

Results 3

[1] 2

Discussion

  • Overall defensive characteristics determine more of the variance of batted passes
  • More Batted Passes?
    • More Pass Rushers
    • Middle Passes
  • Less Batted Passes?
    • Taller QBs
    • More Offensive Backfielders